Intended use
What this kit is being designed to do
- Model financial shocks
- Compare runway percentiles
- Identify the most consequential input
Business mini-lecture
Runway is a distribution, not a date.
A single runway date hides the fact that revenue, hiring, churn, collections, and unexpected costs move together imperfectly. A Monte Carlo view explores many plausible combinations and shows a distribution of outcomes instead of one reassuring forecast. It becomes useful when deciding whether to hire, raise, cut spending, or preserve a contingency buffer under meaningful uncertainty.
The proposed capability would simulate approved ranges, expose sensitive inputs, and summarize the probability of crossing critical cash thresholds. It cannot predict the exact future, select defensible distributions on its own, or decide how much failure risk the company should carry. Founders must approve assumptions, examine shocks and dependencies, and choose the action that matches their financing options.
Operating contract
Inputs, outputs, and gates
Inputs
- Tagged unit-economics model
- Input distributions and dependencies
- Current cash and burn assumptions
Outputs
- Runway percentile chart
- One-paragraph interpretation
- Sensitivity priority
Gates
- Founder approves distribution assumptions
- Founder reviews the shock structure
- Founder approves the risk interpretation
Known limits
What this record does not promise
- The notebook and verifier have not been implemented in this repository.
- Simulation quality is bounded by its inputs and cannot predict an exact runway.
Lineage
Where the intended practice comes from
Planned Founder Hub foundation record. Its authoritative source inputs and transformation decisions must be pinned in the implementation evidence packet.
Lineage explains provenance; it does not substitute for a review record, field evidence, or a versioned implementation.